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Archive for November, 2007

Do not underestimate the U.S. equity and institutional aspects of China 100 years just to catch up

Monday, November 5th, 2007

Zhao Xiao Beijing University of Science and Technology School of Management

2009, the U.S. economy is still suffering the financial crisis a once in moaned, while China took the lead in the global economy is recovering, the growth rate up to 8.7%, ranked highest in the world.

With a fall, China has become the world’s largest exporter, the country’s largest car sales – the history, the United States vehicle sales have reached 18.5 million, in 2009 China’s 13 million car sales did not exceed the highest U.S. sales records, but because the United States fell, China became the world’s first. China has become the world’s largest contributor to economic growth, and this title has been the U.S. maintained. In addition, China last year IPO more than 50,000,000,000 U.S. dollars, the U.S. was 200 billion, and China has surpassed the U.S. the world’s largest IPO, the reason is because the U.S. fell off.

Many Chinese people do not notice but in fact there is a very important data – this year, China’s industrial net output for the first time surpassed the United States (Wang, 2010), China’s industrial added value has surpassed the United States as the world. Historically, the U.S. industrial scale in 1892, more than 20 years after the United Kingdom, the United States to achieve a comprehensive than the British. Therefore, Wang predicted that China’s stock market economist in 2020, four times in the United States, such as PwC predicted that by 2030 China began economies will overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy.

I saw in the beginning of the current round of financial crisis new opportunities in the rise of China, pointed out that the financial crisis on China is an unprecedented challenge and opportunity is the rise of once every hundred years. I am also very optimistic that China will eventually overtake the United States, especially so on the economic aggregate. However, per capita income, in the ecological, institutional, cultural, fair, in the comprehensive strength and all-round development, China should overtake the United States is not easy. Some areas may be 100 years just to catch up.
Recently, scholars of modern Chinese studies (Chuanqi, 2020) for the full realization of China’s modernization in this century, the probability of only 4%, triggering a lot of controversy. Some people may not believe this conclusion, but at least catch it from the record of the past 300 years, a look at the future projections, and the broader aspects of records of China to fully catch up with the United States is not easy.

Even in the economy, also Do not underestimate the United States, the United States still has a world class enterprise, first-class system, class and even after the financial crisis the government lean camel dead horse larger than a world-class financial.

In particular, people dare not small Sui, the United States in this country has the world-class innovation, China and many other countries catch up. U.S. film Avatar, convinced all who read, to conquer the world box office two billion U.S. dollars. Chinese director read, amazing that the film can be divided into the Avatar from the film before and after the movie Avatar, and the Chinese director to collective reflection and learning. Chinese director Feng Xiaogang reflection of the result is that China lags behind the United States, more than the movie, the same helicopter behind the United States.
Google United States, although the Chinese do not accept this, it is still as compelling as the Avatar, a successful enterprise. Apple, three years is not Ming, blockbuster, whether produced by computer or cell phone, all people were only admire. If we say that the production company usually meet the demand, then Apple is in the creation of entirely new demand. Many people who buy Apple mobile phone Do not do before? No, we may have a cell phone but still want to buy Apple, because Apple is so extraordinary, not to experience this life is lived in vain if the whole thing.
Apple and Avatar are the kind of stuff you can not miss. This stuff, this venerable company, the Chinese have?

History, whether it is Germany or the United States, Japan, and economic development to a certain extent, there are many respected companies, and there have been the German model, American model, Japanese model, such as different characteristics of mature development models have. China now has some important business people, but almost no one has respected companies, not to mention Chinese companies mature model. So and so preached the so-called “Chinese-style management” is merely entertain it.

Why the U.S. innovation? Behind this is that it’s a good mechanism, including a sound system that encourages innovation, venture capital from institutional system to the United States to protect human rights to free all political system is. Even the Chinese say there are many restrictions, or, as developers REN sigh as hesitant to even dream of doing, where the courage to innovate?

U.S. innovation also comes from the United States culture. It’s culture encourages innovation has never been a child, to encourage innovation. Children born to encourage unique, independent thinking, not only to recite, stereotyped. Then from the system to the culture of education, for China to become an innovative country, all need to re-build again, this is not easy? It can be said, more to the conclusion, the more difficult things to do, because it needs to deny himself the Chinese themselves, including their own institutions and culture. To the end of the age, China may, like other countries such as Japan, never hard to catch up with the United States, because we can not deny his own, beyond their own.

China today – the Internet has a sharp comment, is “a no good reputation (lack of business ethics) and the lack of good technology, three-known brands and no industry, no people inside and outside not good popularity.” Like China, to fully overtake the United States, future long!
Today’s China – Sohu’s Charles Zhang also has a sharp comment that he would from 2010 to 2049 contest between China, summed up with a formula that “the Confucian spirit of hard work + incomplete market economy
Individualism VS + fair between complete market economy, the great PK “. In his view, if not complete market, equity-based, the answer is yes and frustrating, until 2049 China could not defeat the United States!

Bubi underestimate China’s reform and opening up over the past three decades has brought the development achievements, need not Pidingweilai the future of China’s great, but the Chinese, especially in China’s enterprises Qunti Ye Bu Neng never underestimate the achievements of the past for the realization of the tremendous cost of Do not underestimate the world’s most powerful China will continue to catch up with the growing challenges. China today, expansive, extensive mode of development has come to an end, the bubble 2009, Ascension has to shake the hand of government expansion, but growing gap between rich and poor, social justice, rule of law and other issues are being torn China, but also rely on moving forward?
Praised the former Soviet Union in the world when about to overtake the United States suddenly collapse overnight! Prophecy about to surpass Japan in the world when the United States is a sudden collapse.

The so-called “half a hundred miles by 90,” China today must be clear, is climbing in China is facing more and more dangerous the second half, never easy path ahead, while China wants to avoid The only warning is the humble attitude of humility again, calm and then a calm, try and try again!

Related reports:
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Zhao Xiao: The world will no longer be Depression Economics
Krugman is wrong this time
Zhao Xiao: Development is the last word
Stability and expansion should be the main thrust of economic policy in China

Archive for November, 2007

Do not underestimate the U.S. equity and institutional aspects of China 100 years just to catch up

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